CEDEP is proud to announce the new book of Philippe Silberzahn, CEDEP Faculty and Programme Director.
Bienvenue en Incertitude!
The bankruptcy of Lehmann Brothers, the 2008 crisis, Arab Spring, Greek crisis, emergence of Daesch, Fukushima accident, disappearance of Nokia, the surprise of Brexit, the election of Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron – this list of unforeseeable events is endless, despite the number of concrete means and measures we have to prepare and anticipate the future.
In a world of wonders, radically changing and ever more uncertain, it is not possible to predict the future. Those who try will sooner or later expose themselves to a catastrophe. Yet the decision tools we use are all based on a predictive paradigm. They remain anchored in the civilization of the industrial revolution born 150 years ago. It is high time to reinvent them entirely for the new world. But in order to propose new tools, we must first rethink how we comprehend the environment.
Replete with anecdotes and based on numerous concrete cases in various fields, Philippe’s book redefines three fundamental dimensions of decision-making in uncertainty: the ontological dimension – What is the nature of our environment and how does it evolve? – the epistemological dimension – What information can we use to decide? – and the sociological dimension – How to integrate the interplay of the various actors involved in decision-making?
With these new conceptual bases, the book develops concrete principles of action to understand uncertainty and unprecedented events, to protect one’s organisation from such events and most importantly to benefit from them.
The book will prove indispensable to those who must make strategic decisions in uncertainty and those who advise them: managers, entrepreneurs, investors, insurers but also analysts, consultants and management students.